Analysis On Domestic Vanadium Market On May 18 At the beginning of this week, the vanadium market as a whole continued the trend of last Friday for a while, with stable and strong operation. The manufacturers are still the main force to support the market. The traders are actively trading goods, and raw materials are tight and prices are still rising. Overall, there are profits in the upstream and downstream of the vanadium market. Some manufacturers expect to further increase the quotation. However, before the bidding comes out at the end of this month, the procurement of steel plants is not much, and the market is slightly stagnant.
1. The price of V2O5 flake is still likely to rise
The tightening supply of V2O5 flake caused by the signing of orders by three major manufacturers continues to affect the raw material market this week. At present, it is hard to find V2O5 flake spot goods, speculative traders are stocking up and waiting for the price to continue to rise. The bulk price inquiry of VN plants is mainly 95,000 Yuan/ton. Some manufacturers and traders who are holding spot goods have received the inquiry of 95,500 Yuan/ton in cash. Due to the shortage of spot goods, small V2O5 flake plants and traders are optimistic about the later market price.
2. The alloy manufacturer’s quotation continues to support the market
At present, the ferrovanadium market has maintained a quiet trend, and the favorable steel market has only partially boosted the demand for the ferrovanadium market. However, since April, the output of the ferrovanadium plant has recovered significantly and the supply is sufficient. Therefore, the price of ferrovanadium has remained stable, lacking the momentum to rise. Last weekend, the VN bidding price of Shougang Changzhi was 152,000 Yuan/ton by acceptance with tax, the bidding price of Yangchun Steel was 151,000 Yuan/ton by acceptance with tax, which were higher compared with the previous bidding prices, but there is no breakthrough, although the manufacturer’s current quotation is 150,000-152,000 Yuan/ton in cash with tax, most manufacturers are willing to accept at 152,000 Yuan/ton. The transaction price in bulk market is 148,000-148,500 Yuan/ton in cash with tax. It is expected that the VN alloy will be stable in this week, and further fluctuation will be waiting for next week’s bidding from steel plants.
3. Decreased price in European market almost no impact on domestic market
Last Friday, the prices of FeV and V2O5 in the European market have declined to varying degrees, among which FeV has declined slightly, and the price of V2O5 converted into RMB has declined nearly 14,000 Yuan/ton compared the price in the first week after the Labor holidays. The market average price after the decline is about 91,300 Yuan/ton, which is not much different from the domestic price. The price of FeV has declined slightly, and convert into RMB price is also about 91,300 Yuan/ton, and the market fluctuation of FeV price is not large. The decline of European price is the inevitable trend due to the weak terminal demand affected by epidemic spreading abroad. However, at present, the domestic export market is dominated by the long-term orders of large factories, the export volume is not affected by the price fluctuation, and the current price is not fully favorable for the import market. Therefore, the price fluctuation is expected to have little impact on the volume of imports and exports, and more to guide the market mentality.
4. Steel supply and demand are booming
As of last Friday, the average price of domestic Grade III rebar had reached 3860 Yuan/ton, up 10 Yuan/ton again, with good profit margin. In terms of output and inventory removal, the situation of steel supply and demand continued to boom. The acceleration of infrastructure construction and real estate continued to drive the demand for rebar, and the steel market will be better in the short term. With the production of rebar gradually reaching the same level as the period last year, and facing the coming of summer, the demand increment for alloy formed by the increase of rebar production in the later period will slow down, and the increase of alloy price in the later period will be limited.